What Happened?
During the New Hampshire primaries yesterday, something rather unusual happened. For the first time during this election, the polls leading up to primary day were off. Not just a little bit, but by a significant margin. Many polls had Obama leading Clinton by as many as 12 points. While I wasn't surprised that Hillary won, I wasn't expecting her to win, nor was I expecting Obama to lose by 3 percentage points.
It's an issue that is going to be tackled, and needs to be tackled before we get much deeper into the elections. Many are suspecting that it was late deciders that caused the influx of Clinton votes, but this is an issue that warrants investigation. I think it is imperative, not just for the Democrats, but for the Republicans as well.
The Story:
Drudge's Pick
posted by Sir Knightly @ 1:50 PM
1 comments
1 Comments:
Interesting post. After Sen. Clinton’s unforeseen NH victory, many people are questioning the pollsters. There is so much to consider when exploring what goes into political polling. Predicting elections is one of the most difficult challenges in survey work. Generally speaking, election surveys actually do work fairly well (it's worth remembering that the polling on the Republican side in New Hampshire was pretty accurate). For all their flaws, surveys are still one of the best available tools for figuring out what the public wants. Check out our Public Agenda blog at http://publicagenda.org/headlines/headlines_blog.cfm for more on this!
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